Original title: 14th edition Theory Weekly From the perspective of production factors, China’s birth rate has dropped very obvious; the urban area, from the country, it has expanded very much; In the case where the monetary environment is relatively loose.
Therefore, if China’s next economic growth relying on the accumulation of production factors, this kinetic energy is insufficient.
It is actually the structural effect between rural and urban structures, structural effects between small cities and big cities, and some regional effects. In this structural adjustment process, we must improve resource configuration efficiency, including where people move, you can get higher income and more employment opportunities; where land configuration, you can maximize real estate; Capital where configuration, Get the biggest return on investment. In this sense, the importance of urban agglomeration and urban circles is very clear. Why now improve the development of the urban circle and urban agglomeration to such a high position? The main reason is different from the stage of economic development: what stage is the current China’s economy has entered? The mainstream expression is in the late industrialization; however, from the economic indicator, it can be seen that the proportion of the service industry in GDP and the proportion of the employment has exceeded the manufacturing – and this is our economy for a long time. Since the case of paying attention to the development of manufacturing industry.
If we compare horizontal comparisons with the world, especially with OECD (Economic Cooperation and Development Organization) countries, we have a proportion of services in GDP and employment today, and there should be about 10 percentage points. In other words, if it is not because we have long been relatively neglected for the development of the service industry, the Chinese economy should enter the post-industrial stage. Then, what changes will there be a change when the economy enters the post-industrial phase? That is, the agglomeration effect will become more important than before.
This agglomeration effect is reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, if the monomer goes to see a city will find that the service economy is very wide – including consumer service, such as medical care, education; also includes the production service industry, such as Technology, innovation, culture – It is particularly high in its economy, especially large cities, and large cities. In this way, from the perspective of production factor configuration, if the big city, the development of a large city is actually suppressed, the development of the city service industry is suppressed, and the innovation is developed. On the other hand, the agglomeration effect is reflected in the relationship between urban and cities: When the agglomeration effect is not so strong, the economy between the city and the city is independent, not so much interaction; but the Chinese economy is At this stage, with the increase of agglomeration effect, the link between urban and cities has become more and more important, and the big city has a close relationship between the small and medium-sized cities around, and the rural urban circle has become increasingly increasing. The more important. In the case where the agglomeration effect is now stronger, through the development of the urban circle and urban agglomeration, a new growth momentum is formed, and the structure of our economy is optimized. Specifically, what impact is it for employment? What is the impact of consumption? Through a wide variety of data, including my own research, you can show a result: it is definite to employment. For example, China’s entire labor market today, the more large-scale cities, the lower the unemployment rate, the more serious the shortage of labor force. Including a large number of labor shortages in the living consumer service industry that provides a large number of jobs in the migrant workers.
Relatively speaking, our short board is actually consumed in service. Especially in urban areas, for the consumption of eating, wearing, using products, has reached the stage of saturation; however, relatively, medical, education, and cultural consumption is still a short board.
These consumes need to face-faced production and consumption – because the characteristics of the service industry are "non-tradable".
In this way, urban, especially big cities, to change our consumption state, promote new development patterns and structural adjustments to domestic circulation, overcome the traditional dilemma of economic development – more investment proportion is relatively high Low – is good.
Regarding the proportion of the future income groups, a very simple truth: labor must be a higher income, and if the labor force flows to a higher income, he helps improve his income level. So where is China income? Where is the place to vote with your feet? That is the capital circle of big cities as the core. From the national, there are several urban groups, especially the coastal Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the long triangle, the beads, and become the feet Employment and place of residence. Therefore, if the structural factor is to be sorted, there may be no controversial first is the development of urban circles and urban agglomeration.
(The author is a special professor of Shanghai Jiaotong University, and the executive of the Executive of China Development Research Institute) (Editor: Wan Peng, Lephen).